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The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) has unveiled its annual report, “Economic Outlook 2026,” outlining the key forces expected to shape the global economy over the coming year, with a particular focus on Kenya as a model of adaptability amid global economic shifts.

The report notes that global policy changes that dominated headlines in 2025 will continue to influence economic performance worldwide in 2026. It forecasts an improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth, supported by easing inflationary pressures, sustained consumer demand, and rising infrastructure investment.

According to the report, Kenya is expected to maintain strong economic resilience, driven by solid domestic demand, expanding digital financial inclusion, and increasingly diversified trade relationships. Inflationary pressures are projected to remain moderate, aided by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower energy prices, potentially creating room for interest rate cuts by the central bank.

Commenting on the findings, Khadija Haq, Chief Economist for Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at the Mastercard Economics Institute, stated that Kenya’s 2026 outlook appears broadly positive, reflecting its ability to adapt within a rapidly evolving global environment. She added that stronger trade ties with emerging markets could sustain economic momentum, despite ongoing risks related to global trade tensions, commodity price volatility, and elevated debt levels that may constrain fiscal flexibility.

Meanwhile, Shehryar Ali, Executive Vice President and Regional Head for East Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands at Mastercard, emphasized that Kenya’s efforts to open new export channels and accelerate digital transformation demonstrate the underlying strength of its economy. He noted that continued innovation among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) positions the country well to capture emerging opportunities in a fast-changing global landscape.

The report also highlighted Kenya’s expanding trade engagement with emerging markets as global supply chains continue to realign. It pointed to China’s decision to remove tariffs on most African goods as a potential catalyst for new export opportunities for Kenyan producers, while deeper trade links with Asia and the Middle East could help diversify revenue streams and reduce external vulnerabilities.