Standard Chartered Forecasts Acceleration in UAE Business Activity for Q3 2026 Amid Receding Regional Tensions
Standard Chartered’s Global Research division announced its latest economic analysis today, forecasting an acceleration in the United Arab Emirates' business activity during the third quarter of 2026. This positive outlook comes as regional tensions recede, shifting focus toward the pace and scale of economic recovery across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
The bank’s analysis highlights that the UAE Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June, published by S&P Global, maintained a reading well above the 50-point threshold. This confirms the continuous expansion of the non-oil economic sector, even during the peak of recent regional challenges. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that non-oil growth is firmly anchored by robust domestic consumption and investment, while external demand is projected to recover gradually as regional trade flows improve.
Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of Standard Chartered UAE, Middle East, and Pakistan, commented: "The latest UAE PMI underscores the resilience of the non-oil economy and its capacity to maintain momentum even amidst regional challenges. Both domestic consumption and investment continue to drive economic activity, while the gradual recovery of external demand offers a more positive outlook for the third quarter of the year. These indicators reflect the strength of the UAE’s economic fundamentals, consolidating its position as a leading regional hub for trade, investment, and capital flows."
Three Key Drivers
Standard Chartered expects three primary factors to drive the economy’s transition from resilience to recovery during the third quarter: lower oil prices, a recovering labor market, and an accelerated pace of investment—all while regional governments maintain a strong focus on diversifying trade corridors.
The bank’s analysis also notes that the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, along with the earlier rerouting of oil export pathways, has already helped return UAE oil exports to near-normal levels. Meanwhile, oil exports across the wider region continue their recovery at a more gradual pace.
Keywords: Standard Chartered | UAE Economy | Business Activity Q3 | PMI Index | Non-Oil Growth | Trade Recovery | GCC Investment