• Home
• News

Deloitte projects that U.S. retail sales during the upcoming holiday season could grow by as much as 4.8%, bolstered by gains in personal disposable income, even as inflation-weary consumers remain focused on discounts and value for money.

Holiday retail sales spanning November 2026 through January 2027 are forecast to increase between 4.0% and 4.8%, up slightly from the 4.1% growth recorded during the corresponding period last year. This uptick translates to total retail sales reaching between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion, compared to approximately $1.63 trillion in the prior holiday season, excluding automotive dealers, parts retailers, and gas stations.

Disposable Income Gains Support Spending

According to Deloitte's analysis, personal disposable income is expected to expand between 4.5% and 5.2% over the holiday months—a primary leading indicator the consulting firm relies on to measure baseline retail and e-commerce demand.

Natalie Martini, Vice Chair at Deloitte, noted that while consumers remain committed to making the holiday season special for their families and friends, they are becoming noticeably more deliberate and disciplined regarding their financial choices.

Value-Conscious Shoppers Seek Discounts

Across various income brackets, consumers are prioritizing promotional campaigns, sales events, and discounts. A growing share of shoppers is actively demonstrating brand agility, switching to alternative brands or shifting to discount retailers to secure more competitive price points.

These value-seeking behaviors emerge against a backdrop of elevated household costs and persistent fuel prices. Consequently, lower- and middle-income families are trimming back non-essential expenditures while reserving their discretionary budgets for selective seasonal purchases, core gifting, and targeted entertainment.