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Icelanders began voting on Saturday in a referendum on whether to restart negotiations for their country's accession to the European Union, a critical ballot closely monitored by Brussels.

Following the financial crisis that devastated its economy, the island nation of roughly 400,000 residents applied for EU membership in 2009. However, negotiations were frozen in 2013 upon the election of a Eurosceptic government. Thirteen years later, the referendum's outcome remains highly uncertain, with recent polls showing a tight race between supporters and opponents. The latest Gallup poll indicates 51.6% oppose joining while 48.4% support it—a statistically insignificant margin.

Polling stations opened at 09:00 GMT and will close at 22:00 GMT. Reliable preliminary results are expected late tonight, as no exit polls are being conducted. Approximately 273,000 eligible voters were asked to answer a single question: "Should Iceland restart negotiations to join the European Union?"

If the "Yes" vote prevails, a second referendum on the actual membership will be required. Fishing rights—a cornerstone of the national economy over which Reykjavik wishes to retain exclusive control—are expected to be a major point of contention, although Brussels has expressed a willingness to find "innovative solutions."

With the economy recovering, some argue that discussing EU membership is pointless, given that the country already enjoys access to the single market through the European Economic Area (EEA). "We don't need Brussels to govern us; we can manage on our own," said Elías Theodórsson, a 65-year-old businessman.

However, this prosperity is accompanied by high inflation and interest rates amid currency volatility. Some households are paying over 9% interest on their mortgages, bolstering hopes among pro-EU campaigners that adopting the euro would eventually lead to lower rates.

Internationally, the return of war to Europe with the Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilized the security environment. Situated at the gateway to the Arctic, Iceland lacks an armed force and relies for its defense on NATO and a 1951 bilateral agreement with the United States. Observers note that recent geopolitical turbulence has made the security debate increasingly prominent domestically.

The EU will be watching the vote closely, as no wealthy country that is a net contributor to the European budget has joined the bloc since 1995. A successful bid could serve as a positive showcase for EU enlargement policies and potentially revive similar debates in neighboring Norway.