Visa Sees US Holiday Retail Sales Rising 4.5% in 2026 as Consumers Increase Gift Budgets
Visa expects retail sales in the United States to grow by 4.5% during the November–December 2026 holiday season, representing the fastest annual growth rate since 2021.
The company's Visa Business and Economic Insights unit reported that stronger household incomes and rising wealth levels are supporting consumer demand, even as inflation continues to shape purchasing behavior.
The average planned holiday gift budget is expected to reach $777 per consumer, up from $736 in 2025, reflecting an annual increase of 5.6%.
Price Pressures Shape Holiday Shopping Behavior
Visa forecasts a 3.4% increase in holiday merchandise prices, while real consumer spending growth is expected to reach 1.1% after accounting for inflation.
Michael Brown, Visa's Chief US Economist, said consumers remain willing and financially able to spend, although they are paying greater attention to how they manage their holiday budgets.
The report also found that around one-third of consumers with annual incomes below $100,000 intend to choose more affordable brands and retailers for their holiday purchases.
Physical Gifts Gain Ground Over Travel Experiences
Travel and live events remain popular among consumers' preferred holiday activities. Nevertheless, spending intentions suggest that physical gifts are attracting a larger share of holiday budgets.
While more than half of surveyed consumers expressed interest in travel and live entertainment, only 15% plan to spend on experiences, compared with 27% who intend to purchase physical gifts and products.
Rising travel costs are among the factors influencing these decisions. Visa's analysis of anonymized credit card transactions showed that households earning more than $200,000 annually were the only income group to increase both airline bookings and travel expenditure in September 2026.
Bookings climbed 29%, while travel spending increased 38% year over year. Lower-income households, meanwhile, reduced their airline bookings and related expenditures.
These developments could create additional opportunities for retailers as consumers redirect portions of their budgets toward merchandise and holiday gifts.
Household Wealth Provides Support for Retail Demand
Despite slower job creation, growth in real household incomes and rising wealth levels are continuing to underpin US consumer spending.
Visa expects consumers to maintain their holiday purchases while becoming increasingly selective, making affordability and value for money key factors shaping the 2026 shopping season.
According to Brown, the combination of resilient consumer spending and greater price sensitivity is expected to define this year's holiday retail market.