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 Gold prices in Egypt witnessed a significant decline during the trading week of September 19-26, 2026, weighed down by global market pressures. The downturn was primarily driven by the tightening of US monetary policy, surging Treasury yields, and evolving US-Iran negotiations, which consequently reshaped investor expectations regarding geopolitical risks, according to a market analysis by iSagha, a specialized platform for gold and jewelry trading.

The platform reported that 21-karat gold, the most actively traded in the Egyptian market, dropped from EGP 6,395 per gram at the week's opening to EGP 6,245 by September 26. This EGP 150 loss represents a 2.35% decline, as local prices attempted to stabilize following a sharp sell-off earlier in the week.

At the start of trading on Saturday, 21-karat gold hovered around EGP 6,245 per gram, while 24-karat reached approximately EGP 7,137, and 18-karat recorded EGP 5,353. The gold pound traded at roughly EGP 49,960. Meanwhile, spot gold in global markets stood at about $4,286 per ounce.

Saeed Embaby, CEO of iSagha, stated that the week's price drop predominantly reflects the impact of US monetary policy and the movement of the ounce on global exchanges. He noted that climbing Treasury yields exert heavy downward pressure on the yellow metal, though geopolitical developments remain a volatile catalyst capable of reversing market trends.

He added that the shift in the pricing gap—moving from negative to positive territory before hovering near zero—indicates that local pricing is swiftly responding to global fluctuations, bringing domestic prices closer to their fair value based on the global ounce and the US dollar exchange rate.

Embaby firmly asserted that market liquidity remains robust. 'There is no liquidity crisis or any hindrance to executing buy and sell orders in the local market,' he emphasized, stressing the need to distinguish between price drops triggered by global macroeconomic factors and any alleged disruptions in local market activity.

**Gold Sheds EGP 150 Over the Week**
The 21-karat gold closed the week at EGP 6,245, down from its initial EGP 6,395, marking a total weekly loss of EGP 150 (2.35%). The decline unfolded in stages: dropping EGP 70 to EGP 6,325 on September 21, before sinking further to EGP 6,300 on September 22.

These movements reflect the sustained transmission of global pressures into the local market—specifically the tumbling ounce price and climbing US Treasury yields—as markets continuously recalibrate their expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path.

**Global Ounce Plunges Nearly $70**
Globally, bullion faced severe headwinds, tumbling from $4,344.09 on September 21 to $4,273.97 by September 24, shedding nearly $70. The ounce had briefly peaked at $4,358.88 on September 22 before retreating, pressured by soaring US yields and expectations of prolonged hawkish monetary policy.

Despite lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, news of US-Iranian negotiations and the potential for an understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz curbed safe-haven demand, fostering slightly improved expectations for regional stability.

**Global Gold Ends the Week Lower**
Gold prices edged slightly higher by the close of trading on Friday, September 25, yet still recorded a weekly loss. The metal remained hampered by persistent inflation fears, hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials, and climbing Treasury yields.

Spot gold rose 0.16% to $4,285.03 per ounce, but posted a weekly decline of roughly 2.09%. US gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $4,321.20, yet ended the week down approximately 2.34%.

Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Exinity, commented that the relentless climb in Treasury yields has placed gold on track for its fourth weekly loss in five weeks. He explained that gold, as a non-yielding asset, is battling a convergence of headwinds, including sticky inflation risks, surging bond yields, and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

**Dollar and Pricing Gap Reflect Market Equilibrium**
Domestically, the US dollar exchange rate against the Egyptian pound traded within a relatively tight band over the week, ranging between EGP 51.47 and EGP 51.97. This indicates that the drop in local gold prices was intrinsically tied to global price dynamics rather than severe exchange rate volatility.

The pricing gap—the difference between the local price and the fair value calculated using the global ounce and the exchange rate—saw notable shifts. On September 21, the gap registered negative EGP 26.12, widening to negative EGP 37.18 by September 22, indicating that gold was trading locally below its fair value.

The gap then flipped to a positive EGP 16.71 on September 23, before narrowing to EGP 1.84 on September 24 and EGP 1.92 on September 25. Embaby noted that this rapid narrowing toward zero highlights the local market's agile response to global pricing shifts.

**Pricing Updates Slow Down**
Data from iSagha revealed heightened market monitoring during the onset of the sell-off, with prices updated 17 times on September 22. This frequency tapered off to 13 updates on September 23, 12 on September 24, 8 on September 25, and only a single update on September 26. While the reduced update frequency signals a stabilization in price volatility toward the week's end, this metric alone does not fully encapsulate actual trading volumes or the underlying supply and demand dynamics.

**Treasury Yields Squeeze the Yellow Metal**
US Treasury yields marched higher throughout the week, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Simultaneously, the US dollar headed for weekly gains, making greenback-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, adding another layer of pressure on gold.

Two Federal Reserve officials indicated that the central bank might be compelled to hike interest rates again to cool inflation, which remains stubbornly high, following a recent quarter-point rate hike. While gold is traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, elevated interest rates dull its appeal, steering investors toward yield-bearing assets like bonds.

**Labor Market Data Reinforces Rate Pressures**
Recent economic data showed that initial US jobless claims hovered near a 57-year low last week. This resilience indicates that the labor market is regaining momentum after a sluggish summer, brushing off the negative macroeconomic fallout from the Middle East conflict. The robust labor market, coupled with persistent inflation risks, bolsters the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a 'higher for longer' monetary policy stance, keeping gold under pressure.

**Markets Eye US-Iran Negotiations**
Informed sources reported that US and Iranian negotiators in New York are attempting to reach an agreement that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting economic sanctions.

iSagha analysts view the trajectory of these negotiations as a critical catalyst for near-term gold movements. A breakdown in talks or an escalation of tensions could reignite safe-haven demand. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs could further deflate the geopolitical risk premium. Any developments concerning the Strait of Hormuz and global oil markets could also indirectly impact gold, as energy prices feed directly into inflation metrics and subsequent monetary policy expectations.

**The Fed: The Primary Driver of Gold's Slump**
The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to hike interest rates by 25 basis points—to a target range of 3.75% to 4%—was the dominant bearish factor during the reporting period. Higher interest rates enhance the attractiveness of bonds and yield-generating instruments over gold, which offers no periodic return. This dynamic inherently depresses investment demand for the yellow metal, especially as US Treasury yields surge.

**Gold Price Forecasts Through 2027**
Major financial institutions offer divergent outlooks for gold's trajectory through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, as the impact of tight US monetary policy clashes with structural factors supporting the precious metal.

In June, Goldman Sachs revised its year-end 2026 gold forecast down to $4,900 per ounce, from an earlier estimate of $5,400, while maintaining a structurally bullish outlook for the medium term.

JPMorgan made a steeper downward revision, projecting gold to average $4,300 in Q3 and $4,500 in Q4 of 2026—a sharp pivot from its June forecast of $6,000 by year-end. However, the bank retained a positive outlook for 2027, underpinned by robust central bank purchases and solid physical demand.

Bank of America slashed its average 2026 gold forecast by 14% to $4,360 per ounce, though it signaled that gold could reclaim the $5,000 mark once the current monetary tightening cycle concludes.

Similarly, HSBC lowered its average 2026 forecast to $4,560 (from $4,864), projecting gold to close the year at $4,750, and reach $5,025 by the end of 2027.

By September 25, gold was trading near $4,283 per ounce, down roughly 2.1% for the week, underscoring the relentless pressure from rising yields and interest rate expectations. In the medium term, UBS forecasts suggest gold could hit $5,000 in the first half of 2027, despite lingering short-term headwinds.

The overarching consensus among institutional forecasts points to the $4,500–$5,000 range as a pivotal baseline, with higher valuations heavily dependent on a dovish pivot in monetary policy and sustained official sector demand.

**Markets Await Fed Meeting and Inflation Data**
Traders are closely monitoring several key developments that will dictate gold's near-term path. Chief among these is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 27-28, a critical juncture for assessing the trajectory of monetary policy and rate expectations.

Markets are also awaiting forthcoming US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to gauge whether inflationary pressures are genuinely re-accelerating or merely plateauing.

The movement of US Treasury yields remains a decisive factor; markets will watch closely to see if yields consolidate at their current elevated levels or resume their climb, particularly as demand at US debt auctions is heavily scrutinized.

**Gold Caught Between Conflicting Scenarios**
Saeed Embaby noted that gold's trajectory in the coming period will hinge on the delicate balance of various global and local forces. He explained that persistently high bond yields and expectations of further US monetary tightening present direct, immediate headwinds for the metal.

Conversely, geopolitical developments could throw gold a lifeline—particularly if US-Iran negotiations collapse or if risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and oil markets resurface. Diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran would likely sap safe-haven demand, while a resurgence of tensions would spur renewed interest in bullion.

Embaby reiterated that the local Egyptian market is not facing a liquidity crisis and that physical trading operations are proceeding normally. He stressed that the recent price declines are fundamentally tied to global macroeconomic shifts and the rapid repricing of gold in response to the volatile ounce, the dollar, and US yields.

**EGP 6,200 as Support, EGP 6,400 as Resistance**
According to iSagha’s technical reading, gold's short-term trend leans toward sideways consolidation with a bearish bias, pending clarity on the US monetary policy path and the Washington-Tehran negotiations.

The primary catalysts that could buoy prices include a breakdown in diplomatic talks, a spike in oil prices due to escalating tensions, or a potential uptick in local physical demand at lower price levels.

Conversely, gold will face sustained downward pressure if US Treasury yields climb further, if hawkish monetary expectations solidify, or if the US dollar maintains its robust performance.

In the local Egyptian market, the EGP 6,200 to EGP 6,150 zone for 21-karat gold remains closely watched as a potential support band, while the EGP 6,400 mark serves as near-term resistance. Ultimately, local gold movements will remain tightly tethered to the fluctuations of the global ounce and the US dollar exchange rate.