Goldman Sachs Maintains Q4 2026 Brent Crude Forecast at $80, Citing Middle East Supply Dynamics
Goldman Sachs has maintained its Brent crude price forecast at $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026. The investment bank anticipates that declining supplies from the Middle East will help support prices, assuming that tensions between the United States and Iran de-escalate by the end of the year.
In a research note issued on Thursday, the bank explained that its projections are anchored by the upward support oil prices are receiving from reduced Middle Eastern production expected in the second half of the year.
However, Goldman Sachs noted that this support is partially offset by downward market pressures, which stem from two main factors:
Stronger-than-expected regional production levels recorded in June.
Softening oil demand in key markets, specifically China, South Korea, and the Middle East.
Near-Term Outlook
Looking at the immediate horizon, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to retain the majority of their gains throughout July and August.
The bank attributed this near-term resilience to a continued decline in global inventories, driven by a combination of tighter Middle East output and a surge in travel demand during the peak summer season. Furthermore, the market is being bolstered by a noticeable deceleration in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) drawdowns by member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).