HC Expects Juhayna”s Revenues to Grow at a 18% CAGR Through 2030
We forecast JUFO to deliver a c18% revenue and c26% EBITDA 2026–30e CAGR, supported by higher prices and volumes
A gradual margin normalization will pave the way for higher dividend distribution, despite planned expansions, in our view
In a recent report, HC Brokerage shed light on the consumer sector through an evaluation of Juhayna Food Industries' performance. They forecast revenue growth supported by both price and volume increases.
Pakinam El-Etriby, Consumers Analyst at HC commented that: “JUFO's operations normalized in 2025, after a strong 2024 led by concentrates, with this trend expected to continue in 2026: In 2024, JUFO delivered a strong y-o-y improvement in operational performance, with gross profit margin (GPM) expanding to c30% from c23% in 2023 as concentrate revenues grew by around threefold y-o-y to EGP3.15bn, contributing c13% of total revenues, up from c7% in 2023 and c2% in 2022. The surge was supported by JUFO capitalizing on the 2024 orange tree crisis, along with favorable factors, including the Ras El Hekma investment deal and macro reforms, that improved USD availability at the official rate. In 2025, however, GPM started normalizing to c25%, driven by the resolution of the Brazil supply disruption, which weighed on concentrate revenues, declining by c56% y-o-y to EGP1.40bn and contributing only c5% of total revenues. We forecast concentrate revenues to decline by a further c27% to EGP1.03bn in 2026, representing c3% of total revenues, broadly in line with pre-2023 levels, and forecast concentrates to average c3% of revenue over our 2026–30e forecast horizon. We see that concentrates have already normalized, accounting for c40–45% of total exports as of 1Q26, down from c85% of exports in 2024, and representing c2% of total revenues, in line with 2021–2022 levels.”
“We forecast JUFO's revenues to grow at a 2026–30e CAGR of c18%, driven by higher average selling prices and volume growth: For 2026e, we expect revenues to increase by c21% y-o-y to EGP36.2bn (c1% above our prior estimate), supported by price and volume growth. We also assume JUFO's core segments (dairy, yogurt, and juice) to grow by c23% y-o-y. Meanwhile, we expect the concentrates segment to normalize to pre-crisis levels, reaching EGP1.03bn (down c27% y-o-y and contributing c3% of total revenues). Over 2027–30e, we estimate revenues to grow at a CAGR of c18%, also supported by higher prices and volumes. In 2026e, we expect GPM to remain broadly stable at c25% (lower than our prior estimate of c32% assuming higher concentrates), as we believe that JUFO is more likely to pass on cost increases to consumers to preserve margins, especially due to global cost pressures – particularly due to higher shipping and insurance costs– resulting from ongoing geopolitical tensions. Although skimmed milk powder (SMP)'s price increased c7% y-o-y in 1Q26 to USD2,946/ton, and further rose by c23% y-o-y to USD3,459/ton in 2Q26, likely impacted by the recent geopolitical tensions, JUFO is unlikely to be significantly impacted as it secured most of its SMP needs at favorable prices at the beginning of the year, according to management. Over 2027–30e, we estimate GPM to average c28%, gradually increasing to 29.9% by the end of our forecast period. We expect EBIT to stand at EGP4.93bn in 2026e (below our previous estimate of EGP6.94bn), implying an EBIT margin of c14% (below our prior estimate of c19%). Over 2027–30e, we forecast EBIT margin to average c16%, reaching c18% by the end of our forecast period. We also expect SG&A/sales to average c12% over 2026–30e and forecast total export rebates of EGP848m, equivalent to c4% of total exports. We expect net debt to increase to EGP6.46bn as of 4Q26e from EGP5.96bn in 4Q25 (implying a drop in net debt-to-equity to 0.62x in 4Q26e from 0.74x in 4Q25), then rise further to EGP6.76bn by 2028 in line with the company's expansionary plans, and decline thereafter. Consequently, we expect the 2026e net profit margin (NPM) to increase by only 0.10 pp to c8% (lower than our previous estimate of c13%), primarily on lower margins, gradually increasing to c13% by 2030e.” Consumers Analyst concluded.